* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142020 08/20/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 51 61 66 74 77 88 86 85 82 78 78 75 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 31 30 41 51 42 37 40 51 49 48 45 36 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 30 29 37 45 39 31 41 49 54 55 54 46 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 7 11 3 5 9 3 11 9 23 22 24 22 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -4 -4 0 0 3 0 5 1 2 -2 1 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 87 100 120 92 73 112 134 260 209 236 168 197 197 222 223 252 254 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.3 29.4 30.6 30.6 30.8 30.8 31.0 31.2 32.3 32.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 161 164 163 167 169 172 159 172 171 170 170 169 169 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 158 159 160 157 159 161 167 148 169 165 163 159 160 163 169 169 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 -50.6 -50.5 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 7 9 9 10 11 10 9 10 8 10 9 12 700-500 MB RH 71 73 72 74 76 76 71 70 65 62 62 55 56 51 50 45 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 8 9 10 11 10 12 11 17 15 13 10 7 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 41 41 39 52 67 58 56 72 46 32 44 16 8 -6 -15 -6 13 200 MB DIV 124 131 139 93 100 117 90 74 51 42 44 16 8 -5 8 -6 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 0 1 -1 3 2 2 16 6 16 4 5 2 5 1 LAND (KM) 302 167 32 -7 -19 99 81 -81 15 241 469 350 202 87 -27 -137 -242 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.7 18.1 19.6 21.3 23.0 24.7 26.2 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.4 81.6 82.9 83.8 84.8 85.9 86.9 88.2 89.7 91.2 92.5 93.5 94.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 10 8 8 9 10 11 11 10 7 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 41 33 40 43 41 57 68 44 39 64 85 51 69 50 43 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 38. 43. 45. 48. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. -0. 0. -1. 7. 3. -1. -6. -10. -12. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 21. 31. 36. 44. 47. 58. 56. 55. 52. 48. 48. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 80.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/20/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.78 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.89 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.68 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 21.6% 11.6% 7.2% 6.7% 10.5% 22.0% 55.4% Logistic: 5.7% 45.5% 26.4% 23.6% 11.2% 35.1% 45.5% 60.9% Bayesian: 1.8% 3.8% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 4.3% 19.3% 44.1% Consensus: 4.3% 23.6% 13.2% 10.3% 6.0% 16.6% 29.0% 53.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/20/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/20/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 31 30 41 51 42 37 40 51 49 48 45 36 30 28 18HR AGO 30 29 31 28 27 38 48 39 34 37 48 46 45 42 33 27 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 23 22 33 43 34 29 32 43 41 40 37 28 22 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 30 40 31 26 29 40 38 37 34 25 19 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT