* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/20/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 60 58 57 49 44 40 35 29 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 63 60 58 57 49 44 40 35 29 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 62 59 57 53 46 40 33 26 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 6 7 8 8 9 14 13 16 24 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 7 8 8 11 6 2 2 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 228 173 159 188 160 167 153 181 197 190 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.3 26.8 26.1 24.5 23.3 22.2 22.5 22.5 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 136 131 124 108 95 83 85 85 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -50.4 -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 -50.7 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 5 5 2 2 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 59 57 58 55 54 47 47 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 19 20 20 16 16 16 14 12 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 33 28 36 28 0 8 0 15 23 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 46 18 26 -4 -1 0 1 28 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -5 -10 -5 -14 -8 -2 -2 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 81 90 77 88 167 157 248 366 436 478 428 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.6 24.1 24.7 25.2 26.4 27.5 28.6 29.4 30.2 31.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.7 112.4 113.2 113.9 115.6 117.5 119.3 120.5 121.4 122.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 8 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -4. -8. -12. -15. -19. -22. -24. -27. -30. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -11. -14. -19. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -8. -16. -21. -25. -30. -36. -48. -49. -51. -53. -55. -58. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 23.0 111.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/20/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 6.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/20/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##