* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132020 08/20/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 38 42 47 52 55 62 67 75 76 84 84 84 79 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 38 42 47 52 55 62 67 75 76 84 84 73 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 39 44 52 62 71 78 80 79 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 12 15 14 11 12 6 7 2 9 11 12 13 18 18 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 10 8 5 3 2 4 0 3 -3 -2 -6 0 -2 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 219 213 236 264 273 237 275 246 309 263 319 320 330 306 310 294 297 SST (C) 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.3 30.2 30.6 31.3 30.7 30.4 30.2 30.2 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 141 143 148 148 151 156 159 159 174 173 172 171 170 170 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 141 143 148 148 151 154 158 156 171 173 172 164 153 147 144 150 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.0 -51.2 -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 9 5 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 59 57 55 59 59 61 60 60 63 65 68 68 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 17 18 18 17 16 17 17 20 18 21 21 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 32 31 38 30 24 17 22 25 -9 -15 -52 -37 -43 -26 -15 -14 -28 200 MB DIV 76 81 55 48 30 18 28 20 2 0 -7 49 31 31 10 17 19 700-850 TADV -3 -13 -8 1 2 0 -1 -13 -11 -2 -11 0 0 9 12 14 11 LAND (KM) 1162 1076 960 876 772 383 119 99 167 135 128 62 136 201 83 -6 -134 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.8 19.5 20.3 21.4 22.5 23.8 25.3 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.9 52.8 54.7 56.5 58.4 62.1 65.6 69.2 72.8 76.3 79.3 81.8 83.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 18 19 17 17 18 17 16 14 12 10 7 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 31 31 44 57 44 59 49 58 70 72 67 49 37 33 36 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 33. 38. 42. 44. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 3. -0. 3. 3. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 17. 22. 25. 32. 37. 45. 46. 54. 54. 54. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 50.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/20/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.71 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.76 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 17.7% 11.0% 7.2% 6.6% 9.7% 12.7% 26.5% Logistic: 4.6% 18.3% 9.7% 4.9% 2.5% 8.9% 8.6% 19.8% Bayesian: 0.8% 7.0% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 1.9% 7.8% Consensus: 3.7% 14.3% 7.7% 4.1% 3.1% 6.5% 7.7% 18.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/20/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/20/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 36 38 42 47 52 55 62 67 75 76 84 84 73 45 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 40 45 50 53 60 65 73 74 82 82 71 43 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 35 40 45 48 55 60 68 69 77 77 66 38 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 31 36 39 46 51 59 60 68 68 57 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT