* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132020 08/20/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 39 42 48 50 55 58 61 69 71 75 78 75 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 39 42 48 50 55 58 61 62 65 68 71 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 38 38 39 40 43 48 56 57 63 68 72 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 9 15 18 8 15 4 7 3 15 17 15 17 23 28 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 5 6 2 6 0 8 2 1 -3 0 -5 -3 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 293 241 224 243 263 264 247 267 257 326 308 309 322 303 303 296 308 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.6 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.6 30.7 31.3 31.0 30.8 30.6 30.4 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 140 143 147 148 155 158 158 164 173 172 171 169 170 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 140 143 147 148 154 158 155 160 173 172 168 158 154 149 147 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 8 700-500 MB RH 63 62 59 60 61 58 57 59 61 59 61 61 67 66 66 64 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 14 13 14 12 12 11 11 14 13 16 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR 40 28 21 24 23 13 10 24 13 -20 -36 -49 -52 -45 -55 -42 -84 200 MB DIV 79 69 70 49 44 9 -4 40 25 18 24 43 31 8 2 24 5 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -11 -9 -1 -8 1 -4 -10 -9 -11 -22 -3 -13 10 5 5 LAND (KM) 1173 1172 1106 991 910 591 229 183 145 163 150 12 47 67 109 47 -93 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.5 19.3 20.1 21.1 22.2 23.5 25.1 26.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.9 50.8 52.6 54.5 56.3 60.1 63.8 67.6 71.3 74.7 77.9 80.6 82.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 19 18 18 18 18 17 16 15 12 8 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 26 18 27 29 42 48 73 65 55 54 84 70 92 65 48 55 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 37. 42. 43. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -5. -7. -4. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. 18. 20. 25. 28. 31. 39. 41. 45. 48. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 48.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/20/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.70 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.73 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 17.6% 11.0% 7.0% 6.3% 9.4% 12.8% 27.4% Logistic: 8.4% 30.2% 17.0% 8.4% 4.4% 11.9% 13.0% 26.3% Bayesian: 2.4% 16.5% 4.9% 0.5% 0.3% 2.1% 11.2% 14.8% Consensus: 5.6% 21.4% 11.0% 5.3% 3.6% 7.8% 12.3% 22.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/20/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/20/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 37 39 42 48 50 55 58 61 62 65 68 71 46 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 36 39 45 47 52 55 58 59 62 65 68 43 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 31 34 40 42 47 50 53 54 57 60 63 38 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 26 32 34 39 42 45 46 49 52 55 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT