* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/18/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 95 104 112 120 126 123 115 104 91 76 65 54 45 36 24 N/A V (KT) LAND 85 95 104 112 120 126 123 115 104 91 76 65 54 45 36 24 N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 95 103 109 114 120 116 106 95 80 64 51 41 33 28 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 2 4 4 2 3 3 7 9 9 13 11 18 21 29 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -5 -5 -3 -2 3 2 6 9 3 9 1 6 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 91 144 198 212 123 237 242 167 180 170 194 198 180 204 205 211 210 SST (C) 30.2 29.9 29.4 29.1 29.3 28.7 27.4 26.8 26.5 24.7 23.6 22.8 21.8 21.3 20.9 20.3 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 165 159 156 158 151 137 131 128 109 98 90 80 74 69 63 59 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.4 -51.2 -50.3 -50.3 -49.8 -49.9 -49.6 -49.7 -49.7 -50.0 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 6 7 5 6 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 78 78 75 75 73 67 62 56 57 55 55 49 47 41 39 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 23 26 27 27 27 29 28 27 23 21 19 17 15 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 27 27 38 45 60 57 81 69 75 63 47 47 20 39 45 45 23 200 MB DIV 150 157 125 90 86 70 99 46 38 -5 1 12 7 21 11 32 13 700-850 TADV -9 -5 -1 0 0 0 0 -8 0 -4 -8 0 -5 1 3 0 -8 LAND (KM) 328 327 348 372 402 314 222 238 217 309 315 401 507 598 579 551 559 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.8 17.5 18.2 18.9 20.1 21.3 22.4 23.5 24.5 25.6 26.8 28.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.3 106.5 107.6 108.4 109.2 110.4 111.3 112.5 113.9 115.4 117.0 118.9 120.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 23 15 17 17 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 18 CX,CY: -14/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -2. -6. -10. -15. -19. -23. -27. -32. -38. -44. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 0. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 3. 2. 4. 7. 6. 4. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 19. 27. 35. 41. 38. 30. 19. 6. -9. -20. -31. -40. -49. -61. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.0 105.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/18/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.41 9.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 15.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.90 16.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.80 14.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 10.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 11.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -10.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 4.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 75% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 81% is 6.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 73% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 13.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 75.5% 81.1% 73.4% 69.2% 54.5% 49.8% 24.1% 0.0% Logistic: 61.9% 63.7% 58.7% 51.5% 42.9% 44.4% 10.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 69.2% 72.4% 85.8% 82.4% 30.3% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 68.9% 72.4% 72.6% 67.7% 42.6% 33.9% 11.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/18/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##