* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/17/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 85 95 105 113 121 124 116 105 93 80 68 57 47 37 26 17 V (KT) LAND 75 85 95 105 113 121 124 116 105 93 80 68 57 47 37 26 17 V (KT) LGEM 75 86 96 104 111 121 121 109 97 84 66 52 41 33 26 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 3 2 8 3 5 4 8 12 15 16 9 17 18 18 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -3 -6 -6 -3 -2 1 4 4 5 4 7 4 10 4 0 SHEAR DIR 55 96 104 168 171 223 231 109 171 152 172 177 207 187 199 203 211 SST (C) 30.4 30.2 29.9 29.4 29.2 29.2 27.9 26.8 26.7 25.5 23.6 23.5 22.0 21.5 21.1 20.7 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 171 169 165 160 157 156 143 131 130 118 98 97 82 76 71 67 60 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -51.2 -50.6 -50.1 -50.0 -49.8 -50.1 -49.8 -49.7 -49.8 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 79 77 77 75 74 71 61 57 56 57 53 54 47 45 37 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 22 25 27 25 30 29 28 27 26 24 21 19 16 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 21 25 25 38 44 65 70 73 62 63 51 41 45 45 58 56 19 200 MB DIV 107 129 127 124 101 102 87 60 25 13 -11 5 10 -3 17 -7 0 700-850 TADV -18 -8 -9 -2 0 -1 -5 -11 -3 -5 -2 3 -1 7 2 4 0 LAND (KM) 353 341 344 350 387 389 265 244 225 271 312 358 494 586 621 567 550 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.1 19.4 20.7 22.0 23.1 24.2 25.2 26.3 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.9 105.2 106.5 107.5 108.5 109.9 111.0 112.2 113.5 114.9 116.5 118.2 120.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 12 11 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 38 30 29 25 16 18 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 66.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. -0. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -20. -25. -30. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 4. 3. 8. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. -0. -2. -5. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 20. 30. 38. 46. 49. 41. 30. 18. 5. -7. -18. -28. -38. -49. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.0 103.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/17/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 13.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 16.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 16.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.78 15.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 13.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 11.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -12.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 4.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 80% is 12.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 89% is 7.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 83% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 77% is 12.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 14.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 64% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 79.5% 89.0% 82.7% 77.2% 61.9% 63.8% 38.0% 15.1% Logistic: 72.4% 78.3% 73.9% 66.1% 56.8% 56.6% 16.0% 0.9% Bayesian: 81.2% 87.1% 94.0% 91.7% 81.3% 54.3% 2.4% 0.0% Consensus: 77.7% 84.8% 83.5% 78.3% 66.7% 58.2% 18.8% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/17/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##