* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/16/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 29 30 31 33 36 39 42 44 47 47 49 52 53 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 29 30 31 33 36 39 42 44 47 47 49 52 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 25 26 26 28 29 32 34 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 23 22 19 18 19 17 13 11 10 5 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -3 -4 -4 -5 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 49 46 50 56 54 53 62 84 65 85 86 116 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 143 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 140 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 55 56 55 55 59 59 57 54 53 52 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -21 -22 -20 -38 -47 -33 -19 2 24 40 56 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -17 -13 -25 -12 -9 0 14 10 -23 -39 -26 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2320 2298 2275 2253 2231 2179 2132 2103 2074 2043 2006 1975 1941 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.0 13.7 13.4 13.2 12.9 12.5 12.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.9 134.0 134.2 134.4 134.6 135.1 135.6 136.0 136.4 136.8 137.3 137.8 138.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 17. 17. 19. 22. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 133.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/16/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/16/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##