* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/16/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 24 22 23 25 28 30 34 36 40 41 44 45 45 48 V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 24 22 23 25 28 30 34 36 40 41 44 45 45 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 26 24 22 20 18 16 16 16 18 21 23 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 22 28 34 32 23 19 9 10 9 14 15 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 5 4 7 0 1 -1 -2 0 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 247 249 261 272 272 288 210 256 212 265 276 309 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 155 155 158 161 166 164 164 160 158 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 145 142 140 140 141 144 139 138 134 132 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 48 48 47 47 52 51 54 54 57 58 60 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -37 -38 -51 -67 -69 -71 -73 -88 -81 -101 -82 -79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 16 17 0 -5 13 13 -1 0 4 -2 -7 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 4 0 2 3 1 5 3 1 3 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 245 262 322 377 402 513 685 845 979 1094 1126 1190 1261 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.8 21.4 22.1 22.8 24.2 25.8 27.2 28.3 29.2 29.9 30.4 30.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.5 65.5 66.4 67.1 67.9 68.8 68.9 68.5 67.8 66.9 65.8 64.6 63.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 56 74 79 70 71 52 34 39 33 30 25 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -5. -2. -0. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.2 64.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/16/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.01 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 70.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.43 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.77 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.92 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 10.1% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.5% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 2.2% 0.1% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/16/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/16/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 27 25 24 22 23 25 28 30 34 36 40 41 44 45 45 48 18HR AGO 30 29 27 26 24 25 27 30 32 36 38 42 43 46 47 47 50 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 23 24 26 29 31 35 37 41 42 45 46 46 49 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 18 19 21 24 26 30 32 36 37 40 41 41 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT