* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112020 08/16/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 36 35 31 28 25 23 22 22 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 36 35 31 28 25 23 22 22 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 32 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 8 10 11 19 16 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 4 3 2 -1 0 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 350 312 290 286 276 283 278 258 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 25.9 24.9 24.1 23.5 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 124 113 105 99 85 83 83 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 64 60 55 50 47 43 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 13 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 32 31 14 -9 -36 -24 -45 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 36 44 26 15 -10 -14 -3 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -13 -9 -7 -3 10 11 12 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 914 901 893 903 934 1114 1311 1453 1610 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 20.3 21.4 22.3 23.2 24.4 25.0 24.9 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.8 119.6 120.4 121.6 122.8 125.5 128.2 130.4 132.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 14 14 13 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -0. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -14. -17. -21. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.2 118.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112020 ELEVEN 08/16/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 5.3% 3.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 8.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112020 ELEVEN 08/16/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##