* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KYLE AL122020 08/15/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 45 42 35 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 45 42 35 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 45 42 40 34 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 36 37 42 42 45 38 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 6 6 8 7 3 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 260 264 262 262 287 290 307 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 29.0 27.0 27.6 27.7 27.2 24.7 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 154 127 134 135 130 107 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 131 107 113 114 111 94 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -54.1 -54.3 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 -0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 48 45 42 42 46 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 17 16 13 12 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 42 41 19 -4 -24 35 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 31 38 11 -15 -18 -21 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 -1 8 -6 -9 -11 -47 -97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 488 503 553 567 621 559 771 1133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.2 39.7 40.2 40.7 41.1 41.8 42.2 42.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.3 62.2 60.1 58.1 56.0 51.5 45.7 39.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 16 17 20 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 58 3 4 14 13 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 19 CX,CY: 18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -16. -25. -31. -38. -44. -50. -58. -64. -67. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -13. -19. -21. -23. -24. -25. -25. -25. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -3. -10. -22. -38. -45. -49. -55. -57. -62. -68. -71. -71. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 39.2 64.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122020 KYLE 08/15/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 286.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122020 KYLE 08/15/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122020 KYLE 08/15/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 45 42 35 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 43 40 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 37 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 32 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT