* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/15/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 40 38 35 33 30 32 31 36 40 44 47 48 50 50 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 40 38 35 33 30 32 31 36 40 44 47 48 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 40 38 34 30 26 24 23 25 28 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 23 24 31 36 31 35 28 19 11 1 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 2 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 263 257 261 268 263 278 312 320 14 354 144 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 153 153 154 154 153 154 158 160 160 157 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 146 145 145 143 138 136 137 138 138 134 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 50 48 49 50 54 52 57 59 61 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 1 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -20 -27 -34 -42 -65 -68 -98 -78 -68 -66 -59 -75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 43 42 34 21 5 14 -7 25 38 10 40 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 9 6 0 -3 3 -1 4 3 0 0 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 823 702 591 506 449 465 602 712 874 1042 1078 1100 1049 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.5 21.1 22.5 24.0 25.6 27.2 28.7 30.4 32.1 33.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.9 59.1 60.3 61.5 62.6 64.7 66.3 67.2 67.3 67.0 66.0 64.6 63.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 9 8 8 8 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 60 54 44 42 49 57 40 29 35 30 24 23 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 28. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -13. -15. -14. -12. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -8. -9. -4. -0. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.6 57.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/15/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.03 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.31 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.68 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.65 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 12.1% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 3.0% 1.6% 1.6% 0.5% 1.6% 1.4% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.1% 3.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/15/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/15/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 40 38 35 33 30 32 31 36 40 44 47 48 50 50 18HR AGO 40 39 39 38 36 33 31 28 30 29 34 38 42 45 46 48 48 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 33 30 28 25 27 26 31 35 39 42 43 45 45 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 25 23 20 22 21 26 30 34 37 38 40 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT