* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/15/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 26 27 26 26 25 26 28 29 32 34 37 39 42 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 26 27 26 26 25 26 28 29 32 34 37 39 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 24 23 23 23 23 23 24 25 26 27 29 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 26 27 24 21 17 16 16 14 14 13 13 6 8 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -5 -5 -3 -5 -3 -5 -4 -3 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 50 55 47 49 58 68 59 43 67 80 98 98 112 121 141 197 197 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 140 140 141 139 136 135 134 135 135 134 135 134 135 133 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 58 60 58 55 54 54 52 53 51 55 56 56 54 56 53 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 9 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 27 20 21 16 6 -4 -19 -31 -20 0 30 39 58 73 87 93 200 MB DIV 3 9 -4 -15 -25 -24 -24 -11 3 12 4 2 -10 -29 -6 1 -1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 2 3 0 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 2420 2401 2382 2362 2342 2290 2244 2183 2134 2100 2059 2022 1991 1971 1940 1920 1890 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.0 133.2 133.4 133.6 133.8 134.2 134.5 135.0 135.4 135.7 136.1 136.5 136.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. 27. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.4 133.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/15/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.69 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/15/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##