* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP092020 08/10/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 75 77 79 73 64 53 43 33 26 20 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 65 69 75 77 79 73 64 53 43 33 26 20 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 65 69 72 73 71 64 53 43 34 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 6 3 4 7 13 13 11 16 10 10 8 6 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 0 0 0 3 1 1 -1 2 0 4 7 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 324 324 336 319 261 194 204 208 204 199 223 217 239 278 262 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.4 28.3 27.9 26.5 25.9 24.9 24.2 23.8 23.6 23.3 23.2 24.0 24.1 24.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 149 145 130 123 112 104 99 97 94 93 102 103 106 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -50.5 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 4 3 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 62 61 61 57 54 46 44 37 33 30 29 28 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 19 22 21 21 20 17 13 11 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 28 33 27 15 14 -10 -15 9 31 30 26 12 -3 -27 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 42 31 14 -7 24 11 7 6 -6 4 -20 0 -19 -21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -9 -9 -3 2 11 9 5 5 2 4 2 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 408 425 411 458 539 625 776 873 997 1143 1291 1450 1621 1799 1963 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.4 21.2 21.9 22.4 22.5 22.3 22.0 21.7 21.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.1 110.5 111.8 113.2 114.5 117.0 119.3 121.3 123.0 124.6 126.1 127.7 129.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 12 10 9 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 10 9 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 17. 19. 13. 4. -7. -17. -27. -34. -40. -43. -46. -48. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.6 109.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092020 ELIDA 08/10/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.48 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 7.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.8% 35.1% 29.9% 22.6% 15.5% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 18.2% 11.1% 4.2% 3.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.2% 18.2% 13.7% 8.9% 6.3% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092020 ELIDA 08/10/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##