* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP092020 08/10/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 69 73 75 73 65 55 44 35 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 69 73 75 73 65 55 44 35 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 67 69 70 65 57 46 37 30 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 4 2 5 10 15 15 18 20 13 9 10 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -5 -1 2 0 1 2 0 -1 -3 0 2 2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 324 323 327 336 254 224 196 215 210 195 199 215 238 316 314 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.8 28.4 28.4 27.8 26.2 25.3 24.7 24.0 24.1 23.8 23.4 24.3 24.2 24.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 154 150 150 143 127 116 110 102 103 100 96 105 104 108 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 -51.3 -51.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 65 63 61 59 57 53 51 44 38 33 33 31 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 20 21 21 20 18 15 11 10 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 22 28 39 30 6 2 -7 8 17 37 19 37 17 12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 26 36 38 36 16 15 16 16 26 12 -3 -6 -10 -19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -8 -11 -12 1 3 15 9 10 7 8 5 1 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 358 446 441 441 485 608 750 876 978 1120 1275 1453 1635 1805 1991 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.6 21.2 21.7 22.0 21.9 21.7 21.2 20.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.1 109.5 110.8 112.1 113.4 116.1 118.5 120.5 122.3 124.0 125.7 127.4 129.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 13 11 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 12 10 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. -1. -6. -8. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 20. 18. 10. -0. -11. -20. -30. -35. -39. -42. -43. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.0 108.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092020 ELIDA 08/10/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.57 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 7.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 39.9% 30.3% 21.6% 15.0% 20.8% 15.9% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 20.1% 11.0% 5.0% 3.4% 2.5% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 20.3% 13.8% 8.9% 6.1% 7.8% 5.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092020 ELIDA 08/10/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##