* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/03/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 62 63 61 53 42 36 30 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 60 50 40 34 30 30 29 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 61 51 41 34 30 30 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 27 32 38 47 65 58 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -1 4 -6 -8 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 239 232 215 209 212 214 245 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 28.7 28.2 30.2 27.8 16.2 14.1 12.1 7.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 150 143 176 139 75 71 69 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 135 130 164 126 71 68 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.2 -49.1 -49.3 -49.5 -48.7 -49.4 -50.2 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.2 1.5 1.2 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 6 5 7 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 59 60 64 61 56 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 22 21 20 16 16 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -5 -8 4 40 22 39 34 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 77 73 116 100 61 60 43 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 29 33 12 38 41 37 -30 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 144 46 -56 -67 -43 -142 -111 -131 -156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.2 33.0 34.7 36.9 39.1 43.8 47.9 51.3 54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.7 78.9 78.1 76.8 75.4 72.1 68.9 65.8 62.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 19 21 24 26 25 21 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 21 19 8 7 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 11 CX,CY: 2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -16. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -17. -22. -25. -28. -33. -37. -42. -48. -52. -55. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 1. -7. -18. -24. -30. -35. -42. -49. -56. -63. -69. -74. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 31.2 79.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/03/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 334.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 2.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/03/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/03/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 50 40 34 30 30 29 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 49 39 33 29 29 28 29 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 46 40 36 36 35 36 36 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 44 40 40 39 40 40 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT