* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 07/31/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 71 70 67 65 68 69 70 73 61 49 38 28 21 N/A V (KT) LAND 70 71 72 71 70 67 65 68 69 70 73 61 49 35 32 29 N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 72 73 72 71 69 68 67 68 70 71 60 46 34 35 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 17 16 22 20 23 9 13 11 27 39 45 54 52 51 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 5 5 6 1 2 4 10 11 5 9 1 -3 -7 -8 -5 SHEAR DIR 267 264 266 244 256 258 267 259 248 199 190 201 224 244 259 266 263 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.2 29.5 29.7 27.0 25.2 17.5 19.6 14.8 12.6 11.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 151 158 161 166 165 155 161 166 128 111 77 81 71 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 143 147 148 148 144 134 140 147 114 99 72 74 67 66 65 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -49.9 -49.4 -49.4 -49.7 -50.2 -50.8 -51.8 -52.7 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 8 9 6 6 2 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 52 51 54 53 54 48 49 47 47 49 51 53 57 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 18 19 20 19 22 21 21 23 18 14 10 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 4 1 -19 -33 -48 -46 -60 -14 -63 -35 -52 -36 -67 -72 -39 -26 39 200 MB DIV 25 22 11 26 5 11 13 47 24 58 34 24 18 11 9 1 3 700-850 TADV 32 35 33 15 10 9 2 4 11 15 4 12 -20 8 -10 1 19 LAND (KM) 67 129 153 212 244 167 79 110 219 83 84 153 101 -35 45 50 380 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.4 22.3 23.2 24.1 25.7 27.3 28.9 30.9 33.3 36.3 39.8 42.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.7 73.9 75.1 76.1 77.1 78.5 79.4 79.6 78.9 77.5 74.9 71.1 66.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 12 10 8 9 12 16 21 23 22 20 17 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 44 35 39 49 49 47 45 38 54 40 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. -1. -6. -10. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -6. -9. -14. -19. -24. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -1. -2. -4. -2. -10. -16. -20. -22. -24. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -5. -2. -1. -0. 3. -9. -21. -32. -42. -49. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.5 72.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.33 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 447.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.46 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.42 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 16.1% 10.5% 8.1% 7.4% 8.8% 8.4% 6.9% Logistic: 3.9% 8.0% 5.7% 7.8% 3.7% 5.4% 1.7% 1.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 8.4% 5.6% 5.3% 3.7% 4.9% 3.4% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 3( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 72 71 70 67 65 68 69 70 73 61 49 35 32 29 DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 70 69 68 65 63 66 67 68 71 59 47 33 30 27 DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 64 61 59 62 63 64 67 55 43 29 26 23 DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 56 54 57 58 59 62 50 38 24 21 18 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT