* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 07/31/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 49 49 47 45 43 46 50 51 53 44 32 21 21 23 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 49 49 47 45 43 46 50 51 53 44 32 23 25 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 48 47 45 42 40 40 43 46 48 44 37 34 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 24 23 17 20 22 20 20 16 15 17 36 52 60 68 62 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 9 7 5 7 5 4 4 4 10 6 4 3 4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 251 260 265 251 236 269 258 275 250 242 211 201 221 233 248 253 273 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 30.1 29.5 29.3 30.1 29.5 26.6 20.0 18.0 16.4 12.7 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 155 157 156 155 171 160 157 173 163 124 83 78 75 70 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 148 148 145 140 150 138 135 151 145 109 76 73 71 68 68 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -50.5 -50.2 -49.8 -50.4 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -51.6 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 8 10 5 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 51 51 51 53 52 56 55 50 49 48 53 47 46 48 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 18 17 18 17 16 15 15 16 15 17 14 11 10 17 25 850 MB ENV VOR 20 -3 -14 -26 -34 -58 -48 -43 -50 -59 -77 -41 -3 -10 -23 -40 18 200 MB DIV 51 28 12 9 24 -7 14 8 16 43 39 38 -5 2 -7 11 -10 700-850 TADV 32 35 33 34 14 3 6 5 7 4 23 -17 -13 -40 -25 -28 9 LAND (KM) 11 100 160 197 255 256 114 124 211 138 29 201 121 42 118 75 575 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.8 21.7 22.7 23.6 25.3 26.9 28.5 30.2 32.3 35.0 38.3 41.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.2 72.5 73.8 74.9 76.0 77.7 78.9 79.4 79.1 78.2 76.0 72.6 68.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 13 10 9 9 10 14 19 21 22 22 23 23 23 HEAT CONTENT 36 41 38 46 56 56 46 39 48 39 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 16 CX,CY: -11/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 18. 16. 12. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -9. -14. -23. -32. -39. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -15. -13. -18. -22. -22. -14. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -4. 0. 1. 3. -6. -18. -29. -29. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.9 71.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.30 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 295.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.60 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 14.6% 9.2% 6.9% 6.2% 8.5% 9.3% 8.0% Logistic: 2.8% 3.9% 2.4% 3.3% 1.5% 2.7% 3.4% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.4% 4.0% 3.4% 2.6% 3.8% 4.3% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 50 49 49 47 45 43 46 50 51 53 44 32 23 25 27 18HR AGO 50 49 49 48 48 46 44 42 45 49 50 52 43 31 22 24 26 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 45 43 41 39 42 46 47 49 40 28 19 21 23 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 38 36 34 37 41 42 44 35 23 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT