* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/27/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 73 71 68 62 59 56 55 53 51 50 49 47 45 42 41 V (KT) LAND 80 77 73 71 68 62 59 56 55 53 51 50 49 47 45 42 41 V (KT) LGEM 80 79 76 73 70 62 56 52 51 51 51 52 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 25 25 21 21 22 25 22 20 13 10 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 4 -2 1 4 4 1 -1 1 4 2 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 203 204 210 200 198 199 209 226 213 192 127 50 358 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.7 26.6 27.3 27.3 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 133 132 139 139 146 148 148 148 151 149 148 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 10 11 11 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 35 35 36 37 39 40 42 45 49 46 48 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 13 12 9 7 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -31 -36 -39 -30 -58 -68 -59 -66 -59 -74 -81 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 23 39 32 33 14 0 2 -12 2 0 25 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 3 8 6 1 4 0 0 0 5 0 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 71 51 165 325 496 859 1243 1626 2022 2409 2787 2755 2487 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.7 23.0 23.3 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.4 24.7 25.1 25.9 26.9 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.2 159.8 161.3 163.0 164.7 168.3 172.1 175.9 179.8 183.6 187.3 190.7 194.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 17 17 16 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 5 5 16 10 24 18 14 16 17 12 16 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -9. -12. -18. -21. -24. -25. -27. -29. -30. -31. -33. -35. -38. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 22.3 158.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/27/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.24 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 794.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.02 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/27/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##