* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/27/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 69 66 65 59 56 53 53 50 51 49 48 46 43 39 37 V (KT) LAND 75 72 69 66 65 59 56 53 53 50 51 49 48 46 43 39 37 V (KT) LGEM 75 72 69 66 63 57 51 47 46 46 46 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 20 21 24 21 21 20 24 24 19 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 5 -2 2 4 5 0 0 1 3 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 204 201 204 202 197 200 206 226 219 210 165 111 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.3 27.1 26.8 27.4 27.4 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.4 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 139 137 134 140 140 147 149 148 149 153 151 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 37 36 36 36 38 38 39 42 45 46 46 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 12 13 10 8 6 6 4 4 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -20 -25 -30 -36 -38 -55 -60 -62 -60 -59 -71 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 43 26 32 34 13 23 0 0 -3 32 -5 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -6 -4 4 7 1 3 -1 0 0 2 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 54 34 20 131 288 619 975 1351 1747 2142 2519 2875 2618 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.1 23.5 23.9 24.2 24.4 24.6 25.0 25.6 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 156.5 158.0 159.5 161.1 162.7 166.0 169.5 173.2 177.1 181.0 184.7 188.2 191.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 16 17 17 17 18 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 14 10 6 13 11 22 17 16 17 23 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -13. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -15. -15. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -10. -16. -19. -22. -22. -25. -24. -26. -27. -29. -32. -36. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.6 156.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/27/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.29 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 726.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.10 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/27/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##