* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/25/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 90 86 79 70 63 57 52 50 47 44 41 38 35 31 30 V (KT) LAND 100 96 90 86 79 70 63 57 53 50 48 45 41 39 36 32 30 V (KT) LGEM 100 94 88 81 75 66 60 56 51 49 47 44 42 38 35 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 5 8 8 10 18 19 23 22 19 20 27 31 23 24 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 4 1 4 7 8 7 11 7 5 6 SHEAR DIR 232 213 240 225 205 232 216 218 218 218 192 198 202 212 218 246 246 SST (C) 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.3 26.7 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.8 27.8 28.1 27.8 28.0 27.5 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 119 120 123 128 132 137 139 139 144 144 147 143 145 139 146 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 57 55 53 51 46 42 40 39 39 41 43 44 42 44 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 20 21 18 16 16 15 15 15 14 13 12 10 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 1 3 -6 -1 -2 -5 -3 -2 -6 -11 -32 -35 -38 -28 -35 -35 -45 200 MB DIV 22 22 13 -2 6 14 18 7 7 14 28 15 15 11 6 -12 3 700-850 TADV 1 1 4 5 4 7 1 0 2 0 1 3 -2 -5 1 1 5 LAND (KM) 1128 953 781 618 460 195 35 38 188 513 837 1159 1484 1797 2061 2271 2473 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.1 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 144.3 145.9 147.4 148.9 150.4 153.3 156.1 159.0 162.0 165.1 168.2 171.3 174.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 15 15 14 13 14 14 15 15 15 14 13 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 13 13 12 21 12 13 12 9 5 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -10. -15. -20. -26. -31. -34. -37. -38. -39. -39. -40. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -14. -21. -30. -37. -43. -48. -50. -53. -56. -59. -62. -65. -69. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.5 144.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/25/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 695.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.13 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/25/20 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 55 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##