* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/24/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 93 87 81 77 70 63 58 54 52 49 50 48 45 40 38 37 V (KT) LAND 100 93 87 81 77 70 63 58 54 52 49 50 48 45 40 38 37 V (KT) LGEM 100 92 85 78 72 64 58 54 51 49 48 47 45 43 38 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 6 8 8 12 17 18 19 18 17 19 25 32 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 -2 3 4 3 3 6 7 9 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 146 206 226 219 216 223 217 222 231 219 205 204 199 212 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.4 26.0 26.4 26.9 27.0 27.4 27.5 27.9 28.2 27.7 28.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 119 119 119 125 129 134 135 140 141 145 148 143 146 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 9 8 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 55 54 49 45 40 39 38 41 43 46 46 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 21 21 20 18 16 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 5 3 2 2 -2 -1 3 -7 -1 -24 -35 -32 -36 -31 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 26 28 10 -13 9 1 28 13 5 7 22 25 18 -10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 5 6 3 9 1 3 6 3 5 0 0 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1315 1133 953 785 620 306 94 19 16 340 661 1003 1328 1645 1959 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.0 20.0 20.7 21.3 21.8 22.3 22.7 23.2 24.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.7 144.3 145.9 147.4 148.9 151.9 154.7 157.5 160.4 163.5 166.6 169.9 173.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 15 15 14 13 14 14 14 15 15 14 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 10 8 17 14 15 17 10 11 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -21. -26. -31. -35. -38. -39. -39. -39. -40. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -13. -12. -13. -13. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -19. -23. -30. -37. -42. -46. -48. -51. -50. -52. -55. -60. -62. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.7 142.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/24/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 662.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.17 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/24/20 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##