* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082020 07/24/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 38 42 42 47 45 48 49 51 53 53 55 55 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 38 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 37 34 29 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 10 15 10 6 21 13 23 12 20 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 1 -1 -5 2 -2 1 -4 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 3 346 9 29 346 1 319 360 281 333 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.0 29.3 29.7 29.8 28.9 28.8 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 159 165 169 156 163 164 148 146 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 136 139 143 146 135 140 141 126 124 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 10 11 10 13 11 15 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 66 67 66 65 67 67 68 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 10 10 9 7 7 5 5 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 7 8 26 23 19 26 12 34 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 -16 -22 23 22 -2 45 7 34 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -6 -2 -2 -5 -6 3 -2 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 337 326 329 294 223 111 -17 -161 -290 -391 -491 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.0 91.8 92.7 93.5 94.3 96.0 97.6 99.1 100.4 101.4 102.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 23 26 37 54 25 33 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -16. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 12. 12. 17. 15. 18. 19. 21. 23. 23. 25. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.1 91.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082020 EIGHT 07/24/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.73 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.74 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 18.4% 11.5% 8.1% 7.4% 9.4% 11.1% 12.7% Logistic: 15.2% 52.8% 50.9% 36.5% 16.8% 26.0% 20.2% 15.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 8.8% Consensus: 7.4% 24.5% 21.4% 15.0% 8.1% 11.9% 10.6% 12.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082020 EIGHT 07/24/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082020 EIGHT 07/24/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 37 38 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 35 33 27 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 30 28 22 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT