* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/22/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 77 85 91 96 101 96 87 77 67 59 47 43 39 37 34 31 V (KT) LAND 70 77 85 91 96 101 96 87 77 67 59 49 45 41 39 36 33 V (KT) LGEM 70 77 83 88 91 92 86 77 69 61 54 47 42 40 38 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 5 4 7 8 11 16 21 27 28 27 29 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 -1 -3 0 -1 0 1 1 3 5 3 10 SHEAR DIR 319 10 33 26 28 48 319 273 282 255 257 253 261 265 266 266 283 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.5 27.9 26.8 26.2 25.3 25.6 25.7 26.0 27.1 27.8 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 151 145 134 128 118 121 122 125 137 144 142 145 149 152 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 6 6 7 8 10 10 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 65 64 63 59 55 51 49 44 42 41 42 45 46 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 21 22 22 20 20 19 17 16 11 10 9 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 60 55 54 42 27 21 2 10 1 1 -3 -1 -6 -10 -15 -16 -18 200 MB DIV 67 89 96 48 18 34 11 11 -3 7 -3 3 -17 -7 0 -3 5 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -3 -3 -3 5 12 6 1 3 7 2 7 -7 0 -8 -6 LAND (KM) 2379 2443 2457 2293 2129 1786 1437 1087 757 437 127 69 179 363 700 1056 1413 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.3 13.8 15.1 16.4 17.5 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.3 131.6 132.9 134.3 135.7 138.6 141.6 144.7 147.7 150.7 153.6 156.7 159.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 15 16 15 15 14 14 15 16 16 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 15 22 25 17 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 11 27 18 11 19 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 21. 26. 31. 26. 17. 7. -3. -11. -23. -27. -31. -33. -36. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 11.9 130.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/22/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.45 8.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 11.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 11.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 7.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 10.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 8.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 285.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 -6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.91 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 59% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 59.0% 60.2% 56.2% 53.0% 37.7% 31.2% 16.7% 0.0% Logistic: 27.6% 37.2% 31.8% 23.3% 12.9% 7.9% 2.4% 0.9% Bayesian: 40.9% 32.9% 21.2% 11.3% 1.2% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 42.5% 43.4% 36.4% 29.2% 17.2% 13.6% 6.4% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/22/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##