* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/22/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 60 65 70 72 76 78 81 82 83 84 88 92 95 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 60 65 70 72 76 78 81 82 83 84 88 92 95 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 54 58 62 69 74 78 81 83 84 84 84 84 85 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 9 8 12 10 10 11 8 7 10 5 10 1 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -2 -3 -1 0 2 1 3 1 -1 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 25 28 352 349 348 311 342 312 332 318 333 259 255 242 256 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.3 28.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 143 146 149 148 146 152 154 151 150 149 149 143 150 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 143 146 149 148 146 152 154 151 150 149 149 143 150 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 10 8 10 9 11 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 55 53 52 56 58 61 63 65 64 64 62 62 65 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 36 29 25 23 23 28 27 32 29 60 56 64 72 63 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 2 11 -8 -11 0 2 23 41 34 21 30 20 5 19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -2 -2 -5 -6 -7 -4 -2 4 10 16 13 7 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 995 907 829 748 667 556 524 383 112 216 258 252 333 274 330 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.2 10.5 11.0 11.8 12.6 13.5 14.4 15.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.4 45.6 46.8 48.0 49.2 51.8 54.5 57.5 60.9 64.4 67.6 70.4 73.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 16 17 17 15 14 15 15 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 37 34 31 35 39 33 54 35 34 74 65 81 36 48 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 19. 21. 24. 27. 29. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 20. 25. 27. 31. 33. 36. 37. 38. 39. 43. 47. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 9.9 44.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/22/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.78 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.63 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 26.8% 17.5% 11.7% 8.2% 16.4% 21.3% 25.7% Logistic: 10.5% 34.4% 37.0% 24.6% 7.4% 17.2% 7.8% 12.9% Bayesian: 1.9% 10.8% 13.4% 0.8% 0.4% 2.9% 0.6% 1.5% Consensus: 7.3% 24.0% 22.7% 12.3% 5.3% 12.2% 9.9% 13.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/22/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/22/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 53 57 60 65 70 72 76 78 81 82 83 84 88 92 95 18HR AGO 45 44 48 52 55 60 65 67 71 73 76 77 78 79 83 87 90 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 48 53 58 60 64 66 69 70 71 72 76 80 83 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 43 48 50 54 56 59 60 61 62 66 70 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT