* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072020 07/22/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 40 46 52 59 64 66 70 73 78 83 88 92 94 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 40 46 52 59 64 66 70 73 78 83 88 92 94 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 44 48 53 58 60 63 66 70 72 75 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 11 11 9 11 5 12 8 13 7 16 9 14 3 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -2 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 -1 0 -2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 50 30 18 31 32 356 322 318 295 312 287 313 303 333 22 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.0 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.5 28.5 27.9 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 138 140 138 142 141 146 146 151 153 147 147 139 147 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 135 138 140 138 142 141 146 146 151 153 147 147 139 147 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 8 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 52 52 52 54 56 58 60 62 62 64 67 70 74 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 7 6 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 27 26 27 23 21 24 23 23 17 28 32 50 51 64 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 4 6 -6 0 -21 -17 -12 8 36 20 -3 42 24 58 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 -6 -5 -3 0 -4 -9 -10 0 4 7 7 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1314 1230 1151 1057 972 810 660 575 488 207 189 282 161 257 460 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.8 11.3 11.8 12.4 13.1 13.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.8 41.8 42.8 43.9 45.1 47.6 50.2 53.1 56.2 59.4 62.8 66.6 70.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 12 13 15 16 16 18 19 19 19 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 25 29 37 39 30 34 32 42 43 37 45 67 17 47 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 31. 34. 37. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 16. 22. 29. 34. 36. 40. 43. 48. 53. 58. 62. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.9 40.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 SEVEN 07/22/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.72 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.70 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 17.0% 10.9% 7.6% 6.7% 9.5% 12.3% 16.0% Logistic: 9.1% 31.1% 29.9% 17.6% 6.3% 17.9% 14.7% 23.3% Bayesian: 1.1% 6.7% 5.9% 0.2% 0.1% 2.7% 2.0% 2.4% Consensus: 5.5% 18.3% 15.6% 8.5% 4.4% 10.1% 9.7% 13.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 SEVEN 07/22/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 SEVEN 07/22/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 38 40 46 52 59 64 66 70 73 78 83 88 92 94 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 36 42 48 55 60 62 66 69 74 79 84 88 90 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 36 42 49 54 56 60 63 68 73 78 82 84 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 34 41 46 48 52 55 60 65 70 74 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT