* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/21/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 70 74 78 79 77 73 67 61 58 55 52 48 45 44 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 70 74 78 79 77 73 67 61 58 55 52 48 45 44 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 67 71 74 78 77 71 63 57 53 49 46 41 36 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 5 7 4 2 5 6 1 3 4 11 11 18 23 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 -3 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 23 10 3 343 331 274 341 125 148 201 259 251 273 262 270 256 277 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.5 25.8 26.3 25.7 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.4 27.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 149 150 148 147 145 141 123 128 122 120 123 125 130 140 143 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 63 67 70 71 72 71 67 62 61 56 53 49 45 41 41 42 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 17 18 18 17 15 12 13 12 10 6 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 21 37 46 61 57 43 28 6 3 0 -3 -3 -5 -3 -4 -10 -11 200 MB DIV 20 43 57 47 37 45 30 39 19 -26 -16 -17 -22 -14 -23 -6 -2 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 1 0 2 5 10 3 -1 0 1 -1 5 5 2 -2 LAND (KM) 1803 1906 2011 2115 2223 2397 2338 2018 1708 1396 1081 774 447 156 253 418 652 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.4 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.5 13.4 14.6 15.6 16.4 17.0 17.4 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.8 126.0 127.3 128.6 131.2 133.8 136.5 139.2 142.0 144.9 147.8 151.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 16 17 17 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 11 11 11 12 12 7 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 24 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. -1. -0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 19. 23. 24. 22. 18. 12. 6. 3. 0. -3. -7. -10. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.6 123.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/21/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 9.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 9.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 9.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 10.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 5.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 -6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.84 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.9% 53.5% 47.3% 37.7% 20.5% 36.0% 29.4% 15.5% Logistic: 16.2% 32.1% 28.1% 17.3% 11.7% 11.2% 9.2% 7.8% Bayesian: 5.1% 19.1% 4.8% 1.6% 1.9% 6.3% 3.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.1% 34.9% 26.7% 18.9% 11.4% 17.8% 13.9% 7.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/21/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##