* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062020 07/14/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 22 23 23 22 23 24 24 25 24 25 25 27 28 30 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 22 23 23 22 23 24 24 25 24 25 25 27 28 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 20 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -1 0 1 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 12 335 319 298 291 275 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 27.2 26.6 26.0 25.6 24.8 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 138 132 126 122 114 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 67 66 69 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -20 -24 -25 -26 -20 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -2 16 23 24 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 10 5 2 6 21 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 828 931 1025 1159 1305 1598 1900 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.0 17.9 17.7 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.8 117.4 119.0 120.8 122.5 126.1 129.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 17 17 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 4 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 24. 24. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 2. 3. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.8 115.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062020 SIX 07/14/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.91 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.5% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.2% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062020 SIX 07/14/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##