* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062020 07/14/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 30 31 32 32 30 30 31 32 33 34 36 37 40 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 30 31 32 32 30 30 31 32 33 34 36 37 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 27 24 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 9 7 7 7 6 10 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 1 0 3 -1 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 20 10 348 324 303 295 270 252 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 26.8 26.4 25.8 25.1 24.9 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 145 133 129 124 117 115 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 69 71 71 71 71 66 66 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -14 -14 -14 -15 -17 -15 -10 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 6 12 20 39 36 16 19 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 6 9 4 9 15 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 771 852 951 1052 1145 1393 1685 1976 2228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.7 115.2 116.6 118.1 119.5 122.8 126.4 130.1 133.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 15 16 18 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 10 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. 21. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.9 113.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062020 SIX 07/14/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.96 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 17.4% 13.1% 8.5% 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 3.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.8% 4.8% 3.0% 0.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062020 SIX 07/14/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##