* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAY AL062020 07/10/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 44 46 47 45 47 47 47 44 42 38 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LAND 40 43 44 46 47 32 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 46 47 48 32 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 13 9 10 6 8 20 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 0 -1 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 298 279 276 289 191 214 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 25.5 24.3 24.0 24.1 18.7 21.0 10.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 109 100 98 100 78 86 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 92 86 85 86 72 77 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 6 8 7 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 64 65 70 73 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 12 12 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 -4 -6 18 51 72 117 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 24 10 41 47 19 71 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -3 10 16 14 18 28 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 85 116 85 54 17 -173 -316 -172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.9 36.8 37.7 38.9 40.0 43.2 46.8 50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.8 74.6 74.5 74.2 73.9 72.9 71.3 69.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 12 14 18 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 7. 7. 7. 4. 2. -2. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 35.9 74.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062020 FAY 07/10/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.66 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.21 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 12.4% 8.7% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 4.8% 3.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062020 FAY 07/10/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062020 FAY 07/10/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 44 46 47 32 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 43 28 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 24 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT