* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/09/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 71 75 81 81 72 62 54 44 36 28 21 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 71 75 81 81 72 62 54 44 36 28 21 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 62 64 66 68 66 58 50 43 37 31 26 22 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 9 11 6 7 6 7 5 1 7 9 10 13 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 0 -2 -3 0 -2 -2 -3 0 5 6 8 6 4 SHEAR DIR 10 337 20 28 30 47 94 103 106 75 227 288 288 275 254 252 248 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.7 27.5 26.7 24.6 24.1 23.3 22.8 22.6 22.2 22.4 22.9 23.7 24.0 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 141 141 140 131 110 105 96 91 89 85 87 92 100 103 101 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 4 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 700-500 MB RH 75 76 80 78 76 78 77 74 70 65 58 55 54 53 48 47 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 24 24 26 27 24 22 21 18 16 14 12 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 17 22 28 32 38 40 55 57 96 92 84 77 65 38 22 21 0 200 MB DIV 125 123 84 62 51 30 35 8 50 4 -16 -27 6 -7 -2 3 -12 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 1 0 0 1 4 8 9 7 8 LAND (KM) 499 532 576 578 556 599 706 873 1050 1241 1467 1714 1915 1959 1684 1431 1184 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.3 19.2 20.0 20.6 21.0 21.2 21.4 21.7 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.2 110.1 111.1 112.1 114.2 116.8 119.5 122.2 124.9 127.7 130.6 133.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 13 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 5 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 5. 2. 1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -12. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 20. 26. 26. 17. 7. -1. -11. -19. -27. -34. -40. -44. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.1 108.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/09/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.51 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.71 7.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 8.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -6.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.5% 52.1% 37.2% 24.4% 15.5% 24.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.4% 21.7% 10.8% 6.3% 2.0% 5.7% 1.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.1% 24.9% 16.1% 10.3% 5.8% 10.2% 0.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/09/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##