* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/08/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 66 70 76 80 75 69 60 52 44 36 28 22 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 66 70 76 80 75 69 60 52 44 36 28 22 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 54 58 62 66 71 71 65 56 47 39 33 28 24 20 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 7 11 13 8 5 6 7 3 6 11 10 13 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 -4 -3 -2 0 -1 -2 -2 0 4 6 6 8 SHEAR DIR 13 23 16 41 42 36 35 77 87 83 17 300 284 283 271 259 258 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.7 27.1 25.8 23.9 23.3 23.0 22.2 22.2 22.0 22.6 23.4 24.0 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 141 141 135 122 102 96 94 85 85 83 89 97 103 102 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 76 77 79 81 80 79 78 76 73 68 63 58 57 53 51 46 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 17 21 22 24 27 26 25 23 22 19 18 15 13 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 20 17 21 23 38 39 44 64 85 110 110 109 104 100 75 68 41 200 MB DIV 112 125 118 74 66 65 35 24 18 26 -19 -7 -12 -6 -3 -2 -1 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -6 0 -7 -4 -3 0 0 1 -1 0 3 4 8 3 LAND (KM) 483 491 521 569 565 558 635 732 909 1069 1288 1532 1776 1976 1800 1545 1292 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.8 19.8 20.6 21.2 21.6 21.9 22.2 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.2 109.1 110.1 111.0 113.1 115.3 117.8 120.4 123.1 126.0 128.9 131.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 14 14 13 14 13 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 8 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 8. 9. 6. 4. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 16. 20. 26. 30. 25. 19. 10. 2. -6. -14. -22. -28. -33. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.6 107.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/08/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 6.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.8% 46.7% 32.7% 23.2% 14.9% 26.2% 17.6% 0.0% Logistic: 11.8% 29.1% 16.2% 9.6% 2.8% 8.9% 6.3% 1.0% Bayesian: 4.5% 6.7% 5.3% 2.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.4% 27.5% 18.1% 11.7% 5.9% 11.8% 8.0% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/08/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##