* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/08/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 48 53 62 69 73 72 67 62 54 46 38 32 26 22 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 48 53 62 69 73 72 67 62 54 46 38 32 26 22 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 42 44 49 54 56 54 49 43 38 33 28 24 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 10 8 5 12 17 15 9 4 3 3 6 11 11 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 0 -5 -2 0 -3 -7 -4 -1 -5 0 -2 0 2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 11 7 354 36 63 53 50 40 60 29 58 286 294 281 293 281 268 SST (C) 29.3 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.5 26.3 24.4 23.9 23.1 22.4 22.5 22.1 22.5 23.3 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 152 149 149 145 143 139 127 108 103 94 87 88 84 88 96 103 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 77 77 79 80 78 78 78 79 73 69 63 58 55 54 51 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 19 21 24 26 28 29 28 27 23 22 18 16 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 6 11 11 29 38 55 68 93 122 128 133 127 107 79 69 200 MB DIV 105 122 148 150 114 71 53 34 25 34 29 -9 0 -20 -7 -4 -16 700-850 TADV -9 -6 0 -3 -4 0 -5 -7 -7 0 -2 4 1 -3 8 4 12 LAND (KM) 585 586 584 599 635 677 665 740 815 970 1114 1313 1534 1775 1949 1860 1574 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.5 16.0 17.0 17.9 18.9 19.8 20.6 21.2 21.5 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.0 107.0 107.9 108.9 109.8 111.6 113.5 115.7 118.1 120.6 123.3 126.0 128.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 31 19 13 12 9 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 15. 15. 13. 10. 7. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 13. 11. 6. 3. -0. -2. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 23. 29. 33. 32. 27. 22. 14. 6. -2. -8. -14. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.7 106.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/08/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.84 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.84 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 30.2% 24.5% 18.2% 13.0% 19.8% 18.7% 15.9% Logistic: 2.7% 27.3% 15.8% 9.0% 2.8% 15.9% 13.2% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 3.3% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 20.3% 14.2% 9.2% 5.3% 12.1% 10.7% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/08/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##