* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/07/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 42 46 56 69 80 88 88 84 78 72 64 55 46 39 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 42 46 56 69 80 88 88 84 78 72 64 55 46 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 40 46 54 65 73 74 69 60 51 44 38 31 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 10 10 7 5 4 9 14 16 8 4 4 6 9 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 1 1 -1 -1 -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 0 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 44 41 27 35 16 8 79 62 42 43 49 54 324 283 270 285 279 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.1 26.1 24.4 24.0 23.1 22.7 22.5 22.2 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 162 160 156 147 147 143 135 125 107 103 94 90 88 85 84 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.2 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 78 80 80 82 79 80 81 78 73 67 62 58 52 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 17 18 20 23 27 30 32 32 30 29 28 24 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 6 5 0 -6 3 10 27 34 51 62 75 111 115 117 117 107 97 200 MB DIV 71 87 121 126 112 132 117 104 48 48 38 58 7 3 -21 -17 -11 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -4 -6 -4 -3 -2 -1 -7 -5 -5 0 0 4 3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 594 592 585 577 584 599 659 688 688 762 839 988 1123 1277 1466 1676 1793 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 17.9 18.7 19.5 20.3 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.3 103.4 104.5 105.5 106.5 108.3 110.1 112.0 113.9 115.8 118.1 120.6 123.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 47 52 44 32 25 12 10 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 23. 23. 21. 19. 16. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 21. 21. 17. 14. 11. 7. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 11. 21. 34. 45. 53. 53. 49. 43. 37. 29. 20. 11. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.0 102.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/07/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.81 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.57 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.37 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 29.0% 24.7% 18.5% 13.7% 26.1% 40.1% 44.8% Logistic: 0.6% 5.4% 2.5% 1.1% 0.1% 8.9% 40.0% 14.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 14.1% 9.3% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% Consensus: 4.3% 16.2% 12.2% 7.3% 4.6% 11.7% 26.7% 21.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/07/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##