* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052020 07/07/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 42 49 56 65 77 86 91 96 97 93 87 80 73 66 59 48 V (KT) LAND 35 42 49 56 65 77 86 91 96 97 93 87 80 73 66 59 48 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 45 50 56 67 78 89 96 96 92 81 70 61 52 45 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 12 13 12 7 3 5 3 11 13 11 2 3 2 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 5 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 42 36 40 55 46 25 14 17 29 47 51 49 52 356 334 278 292 SST (C) 29.1 29.4 29.8 29.6 29.2 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.5 27.1 26.4 25.2 23.8 23.2 23.0 22.5 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 164 162 157 149 145 144 139 135 128 116 101 95 94 88 83 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -53.0 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 81 81 77 78 78 79 80 81 81 79 79 74 72 65 57 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 16 17 17 19 20 24 27 27 27 25 25 23 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR 11 12 16 11 1 4 9 27 37 61 60 79 94 96 96 99 74 200 MB DIV 97 94 103 103 120 118 131 109 102 46 47 28 39 2 -12 -19 -10 700-850 TADV -10 -11 -7 -3 -4 -3 -3 0 1 -7 -5 -3 1 -1 4 -1 0 LAND (KM) 639 635 631 638 628 639 658 729 769 772 836 920 1027 1135 1272 1480 1699 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.8 14.7 15.5 16.3 17.0 17.8 18.6 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.8 101.8 102.9 104.0 105.1 107.1 108.8 110.5 112.2 113.9 115.9 118.2 120.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 11 11 11 12 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 43 45 33 19 13 10 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 24. 22. 20. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 9. 16. 19. 20. 18. 14. 12. 10. 7. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 21. 30. 42. 51. 56. 61. 62. 58. 52. 45. 38. 31. 24. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.9 100.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052020 FIVE 07/07/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.81 9.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 -6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.36 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 54% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 51.8% 32.4% 22.3% 15.4% 39.0% 53.5% 55.1% Logistic: 13.6% 51.7% 31.5% 23.8% 4.8% 52.5% 65.6% 51.9% Bayesian: 8.7% 53.5% 47.4% 28.8% 2.1% 37.0% 30.1% 15.8% Consensus: 12.5% 52.3% 37.1% 24.9% 7.4% 42.8% 49.7% 40.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 FIVE 07/07/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##