* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/08/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 51 54 60 60 58 54 40 37 31 25 20 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 45 39 34 31 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 39 34 30 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 7 9 13 11 32 43 56 26 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 2 0 -1 2 8 13 0 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 241 249 221 242 225 198 207 174 160 194 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 27.5 28.1 28.4 28.4 3.2 4.7 5.8 6.4 2.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 131 140 145 146 66 65 65 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 115 122 126 127 N/A N/A 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 -50.2 -50.6 -49.8 -48.8 -46.6 -45.0 -44.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.8 1.6 0.8 2.5 2.8 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 6 5 10 11 2 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 43 43 45 47 48 58 61 65 56 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 23 21 22 21 27 27 29 31 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 6 -34 -14 -13 99 133 251 293 259 185 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 51 51 61 71 97 172 108 94 61 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 9 -9 -5 27 25 0 41 -26 -3 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -14 -64 -194 -357 -519 -902 -999 -999 -999 -999 -948 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.8 31.0 32.1 33.6 35.0 38.6 42.8 46.7 49.7 52.0 54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.8 90.2 90.6 90.8 91.0 90.5 88.8 86.5 84.1 81.7 79.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 15 16 20 22 19 16 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 3 2 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -7. -11. -13. -17. -21. -26. -29. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -1. -1. 1. 3. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 15. 15. 13. 9. -5. -8. -14. -20. -25. -27. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 29.8 89.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/08/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.68 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 323.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.43 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 14.6% 9.5% 6.4% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.0% 3.6% 2.2% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/08/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/08/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 39 34 31 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 39 36 34 33 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 36 35 36 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 32 33 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT