* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/07/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 49 50 53 55 63 56 54 43 40 35 29 24 21 18 V (KT) LAND 45 39 34 31 29 27 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 39 34 31 29 27 29 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 12 14 8 10 14 32 48 41 31 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -2 2 2 1 4 3 0 -2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 218 247 253 211 248 203 198 156 163 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.3 27.0 27.4 28.4 25.7 4.5 6.6 6.9 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 133 129 125 130 145 115 66 65 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 117 113 109 113 127 101 N/A 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.3 -50.6 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -50.3 -49.1 -47.4 -46.4 -47.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.9 3.9 2.0 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 7 4 10 4 5 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 46 42 43 45 44 55 64 63 69 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 23 22 22 21 21 29 28 31 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 46 0 -30 -3 65 111 222 248 281 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 27 43 46 72 110 122 102 116 50 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 7 7 -9 -7 53 8 -6 -45 3 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 47 -21 -82 -224 -367 -711 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.9 31.0 32.3 33.5 36.7 40.8 45.1 48.5 51.0 53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.9 90.3 90.7 91.1 91.5 91.4 90.2 88.0 85.8 83.8 81.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 12 13 14 19 22 21 17 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 1 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 1. -4. -9. -10. -13. -16. -21. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. 1. -1. 2. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 18. 11. 9. -2. -5. -10. -16. -21. -24. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.8 89.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/07/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.70 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 305.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.36 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 14.4% 9.5% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.6% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.0% 3.8% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/07/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/07/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 39 34 31 29 27 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 45 44 39 36 34 32 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 36 34 36 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 31 33 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT