* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/07/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 48 50 52 56 54 48 49 44 38 31 26 22 18 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 40 35 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 40 35 29 27 29 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 5 6 10 12 13 17 35 62 46 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 -2 0 0 4 8 1 -2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 311 338 237 233 261 196 231 199 191 155 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.8 28.4 27.1 6.8 7.3 3.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 130 127 125 124 145 129 67 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 110 114 111 109 109 127 112 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.4 -50.4 -49.8 -48.2 -46.6 -47.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.5 3.2 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 9 10 7 10 4 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 53 49 46 43 45 44 57 62 61 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 25 24 23 22 20 21 26 28 32 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 69 49 39 -3 9 77 105 192 276 297 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 40 44 38 38 85 123 122 109 70 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 2 0 11 8 -8 73 25 -13 -36 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 257 151 48 -48 -96 -379 -731 -999 -999 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.8 28.7 29.8 30.8 33.4 36.7 40.8 45.0 48.8 52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.1 90.3 90.4 90.8 91.1 92.1 92.4 91.6 89.7 87.5 85.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 15 19 21 21 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 3 4 2 1 1 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -3. -9. -14. -17. -21. -26. -29. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -8. -3. -2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 9. 3. 4. -1. -7. -14. -19. -23. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.8 90.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/07/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.75 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.34 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 12.4% 8.5% 5.8% 5.0% 8.1% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 7.9% 4.1% 1.0% 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.8% 4.2% 2.3% 1.8% 3.0% 3.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/07/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/07/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 40 35 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 45 44 45 38 33 27 26 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 45 42 41 34 29 23 22 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 30 24 23 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT