* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/06/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 52 52 51 53 51 55 48 45 41 37 33 31 29 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 52 39 31 28 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 51 52 40 31 28 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 2 8 9 4 14 17 19 29 34 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 -2 -4 0 1 0 0 4 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 138 170 293 315 265 253 210 239 216 200 200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.5 26.7 26.5 28.1 26.1 3.2 6.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 129 128 130 122 120 141 119 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 116 114 112 114 107 106 124 106 N/A 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -50.9 -50.5 -50.0 -49.7 -50.1 -50.1 -49.1 -47.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.8 1.7 1.1 0.9 2.0 2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 8 7 10 4 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 59 55 52 44 45 43 54 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 28 29 28 25 24 23 20 25 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 99 95 86 81 71 3 15 69 114 201 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 64 22 37 62 29 90 123 139 130 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 9 0 -2 6 -5 54 28 -30 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 392 389 290 185 83 -89 -346 -683 -999 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.6 26.5 27.5 28.4 30.5 33.1 36.3 40.4 45.1 49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.2 90.3 90.3 90.4 90.5 91.2 92.0 92.2 90.6 87.6 84.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 12 15 19 24 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 25 19 5 4 1 1 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 0. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -16. -10. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 8. 6. 10. 3. 0. -4. -8. -12. -14. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.7 90.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/06/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.86 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.37 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 18.2% 11.8% 7.9% 7.0% 9.8% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 18.5% 10.5% 2.3% 0.6% 2.3% 1.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 12.4% 7.5% 3.4% 2.6% 4.0% 4.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/06/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/06/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 51 52 39 31 28 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 49 36 28 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 31 23 20 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT