* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/05/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 35 40 45 49 54 58 59 59 61 61 49 46 44 42 40 V (KT) LAND 30 29 33 37 43 46 51 56 37 30 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 32 34 36 37 37 38 30 28 27 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 20 14 11 9 6 12 6 6 7 48 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 0 0 0 5 -1 -3 1 0 12 12 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 297 259 227 229 230 183 211 210 241 235 180 200 217 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 29.4 28.1 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.0 27.2 26.4 26.2 27.9 27.9 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 158 138 129 129 130 124 127 118 116 137 137 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 167 146 126 117 116 116 109 111 103 101 117 117 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.9 -50.5 -50.8 -50.8 -50.0 -50.4 -49.9 -50.0 -49.7 -50.2 -49.0 -48.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 6 9 7 12 6 13 4 7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 68 64 58 50 44 42 49 47 39 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 25 27 32 30 29 27 25 23 23 27 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 116 112 96 100 101 89 43 -11 14 79 74 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 146 136 120 90 71 70 7 40 23 88 61 27 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 3 10 13 8 5 4 2 -7 4 57 -3 -59 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -65 -44 24 128 232 435 234 27 -132 -351 -616 -924 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.4 21.3 22.3 23.2 25.1 27.0 28.9 31.0 33.2 35.8 38.8 41.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.1 90.2 90.2 90.2 90.7 91.4 91.9 91.6 90.5 89.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 12 14 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 28 21 7 9 19 9 3 0 0 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 3. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 8. 8. 8. 6. 3. -1. -1. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 10. 15. 19. 24. 28. 29. 29. 31. 31. 19. 16. 14. 12. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.5 90.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/05/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.57 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.68 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.66 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 15.2% 9.5% 5.8% 5.1% 8.3% 10.5% 13.6% Logistic: 1.1% 4.7% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 1.7% 2.2% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 2.0% 6.7% 3.8% 2.2% 1.7% 3.3% 4.3% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/05/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/05/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 33 37 43 46 51 56 37 30 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 43 46 51 56 37 30 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 36 39 44 49 30 23 21 21 22 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 29 34 39 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT