* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/04/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 33 36 45 56 63 62 60 58 54 54 51 43 36 29 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 36 46 54 53 45 33 29 27 28 29 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 32 36 38 37 37 29 27 27 28 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 15 13 10 16 8 11 13 14 9 10 6 12 39 62 66 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 2 3 2 7 1 5 -2 -2 -2 -2 4 6 0 5 SHEAR DIR 295 292 299 293 254 228 210 223 211 211 231 339 351 169 193 207 211 SST (C) 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.6 30.1 27.7 27.5 27.6 26.7 26.7 26.2 27.0 27.8 25.9 23.3 2.5 1.6 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 169 171 171 132 130 131 121 121 116 124 135 115 98 67 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 168 169 169 170 160 120 117 117 107 106 100 106 115 100 87 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 -50.3 -50.5 -50.7 -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 9 6 10 6 9 1 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 83 80 79 77 72 67 59 51 45 47 52 53 43 31 41 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 16 19 23 27 28 24 20 18 14 15 13 11 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 116 131 116 113 126 90 97 89 97 28 28 11 76 -2 -55 -55 29 200 MB DIV 82 87 108 138 142 79 79 59 36 48 15 47 39 13 7 -10 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 3 5 0 8 14 0 1 -6 25 -8 -19 -38 -66 -8 LAND (KM) -115 -93 -91 -38 -25 91 289 403 170 -6 -197 -399 -625 -841 -945 -848 -736 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.3 19.1 19.9 21.8 23.6 25.5 27.6 29.6 31.7 33.8 36.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.9 90.6 90.4 90.3 90.3 90.5 90.7 90.7 90.9 91.4 91.6 91.5 90.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 6 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 11 13 17 22 24 23 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 7 33 36 10 12 21 3 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 26. 28. 29. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. -3. -11. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 2. 5. 11. 13. 8. 2. -1. -7. -7. -10. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 3. 6. 15. 26. 33. 32. 30. 28. 24. 24. 21. 13. 6. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.6 90.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.55 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.97 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.65 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 17.5% 10.3% 6.2% 5.8% 8.8% 10.7% 14.4% Logistic: 3.3% 29.5% 12.9% 4.8% 2.0% 4.8% 8.3% 8.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% Consensus: 2.5% 15.7% 7.7% 3.7% 2.6% 4.5% 6.3% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 36 46 54 53 45 33 29 27 28 29 30 30 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 36 46 54 53 45 33 29 27 28 29 30 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 34 44 52 51 43 31 27 25 26 27 28 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 29 39 47 46 38 26 22 20 21 22 23 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT