* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/03/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 50 53 58 63 70 70 68 65 62 57 57 52 43 V (KT) LAND 45 39 34 31 30 32 38 43 49 50 47 39 31 28 27 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 39 34 31 30 32 36 39 42 43 44 39 31 28 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 15 15 13 16 14 10 8 12 8 15 5 7 8 45 72 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 2 1 2 3 3 4 0 3 -1 -2 4 6 4 3 SHEAR DIR 323 305 303 309 302 279 228 202 192 221 186 227 253 304 202 208 200 SST (C) 29.9 30.2 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.3 29.1 27.5 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.4 26.4 26.0 27.6 27.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 168 167 168 168 169 152 130 132 126 122 117 117 114 133 133 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 153 158 159 162 159 139 117 119 112 106 101 101 97 113 113 95 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -50.4 -50.3 -50.6 -50.9 -50.3 -49.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 8 6 10 6 8 1 3 700-500 MB RH 82 83 83 82 81 79 76 70 66 61 55 51 52 50 50 47 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 15 16 20 23 25 24 21 19 17 14 14 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 89 91 95 96 115 117 121 94 102 92 91 30 14 65 49 26 73 200 MB DIV 43 34 43 59 74 98 120 63 78 51 60 65 28 35 68 82 51 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 0 2 1 1 6 4 4 0 7 -9 26 26 -5 -25 LAND (KM) -22 -39 -56 -39 -31 12 32 153 366 304 111 -13 -208 -398 -603 -868 -999 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.3 18.1 18.3 18.4 19.3 20.6 22.3 24.3 26.4 28.2 29.9 31.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.9 91.6 91.4 91.2 91.0 90.8 90.7 90.8 90.8 90.9 91.2 91.7 92.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 3 6 7 9 10 10 9 9 9 10 13 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 35 40 23 33 40 44 35 7 15 10 2 1 0 0 2 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. 16. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 4. 6. 5. 0. -3. -7. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 25. 25. 23. 20. 17. 12. 12. 7. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.4 91.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/03/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.55 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.74 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 24.0% 11.8% 8.3% 7.8% 11.0% 12.7% 15.3% Logistic: 6.5% 33.2% 20.1% 10.8% 7.2% 9.8% 9.2% 11.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 2.2% Consensus: 4.7% 19.5% 10.8% 6.5% 5.0% 7.0% 7.3% 9.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/03/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/03/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 39 34 31 30 32 38 43 49 50 47 39 31 28 27 28 29 18HR AGO 45 44 39 36 35 37 43 48 54 55 52 44 36 33 32 33 34 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 37 39 45 50 56 57 54 46 38 35 34 35 36 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 36 42 47 53 54 51 43 35 32 31 32 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT