* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012020 05/18/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 42 43 45 44 39 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 42 43 45 44 39 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 41 41 38 34 30 26 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 25 29 32 38 37 37 47 42 42 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 0 -3 5 4 4 2 2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 231 241 244 249 263 256 261 279 284 292 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 23.6 23.5 23.8 23.1 22.5 20.0 20.3 20.3 21.4 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 96 95 97 93 89 78 79 78 82 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 88 85 84 85 81 78 71 71 70 73 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.4 -56.5 -57.2 -57.6 -58.1 -58.9 -58.5 -58.3 -57.6 -57.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 65 66 64 60 57 59 44 34 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 22 23 25 23 20 16 13 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -13 -2 1 -1 -5 32 21 -6 -30 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 64 86 43 48 48 43 16 -30 -70 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 18 16 25 0 5 -16 -38 -27 -19 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 62 106 214 341 428 606 773 947 1087 1182 1273 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.6 35.4 36.2 36.6 36.9 36.5 35.5 34.2 33.0 32.0 31.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.8 74.6 73.4 72.0 70.6 67.8 65.9 64.8 64.3 63.7 63.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 15 CX,CY: 6/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -12. -20. -27. -34. -39. -44. -50. -54. -57. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 18. 20. 20. 20. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -7. -13. -18. -22. -23. -24. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 4. -1. -11. -22. -30. -39. -42. -44. -47. -49. -50. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 34.6 75.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012020 ARTHUR 05/18/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.15 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012020 ARTHUR 05/18/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012020 ARTHUR 05/18/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 42 43 45 44 39 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 44 43 38 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 39 38 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 31 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT