* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012020 05/18/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 40 42 47 44 36 27 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 40 42 47 44 36 27 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 38 39 40 37 32 29 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 24 22 25 31 38 38 44 42 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 4 6 0 1 4 4 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 259 248 238 245 261 263 263 263 279 293 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 25.1 24.6 23.8 23.5 21.4 22.0 19.5 20.1 20.6 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 107 103 97 95 84 86 76 78 79 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 92 93 90 86 83 75 75 69 70 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.9 -56.0 -56.1 -56.5 -57.5 -58.1 -59.1 -59.0 -59.0 -58.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 55 59 63 67 64 59 59 50 40 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 21 22 25 21 18 15 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -63 -54 -35 -14 -5 0 13 -13 -39 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 17 39 59 84 69 40 37 17 -32 -57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 19 23 29 28 17 13 -1 -27 -19 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 253 199 127 149 210 445 609 710 833 957 1078 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.9 33.9 34.8 35.6 36.3 36.2 35.7 34.9 34.1 33.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.0 76.3 75.6 74.5 73.4 70.8 68.6 67.1 65.9 64.8 63.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 11 10 7 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 2. -5. -12. -19. -27. -31. -36. -42. -46. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. -1. -6. -13. -20. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 12. 9. 1. -8. -20. -31. -34. -38. -40. -41. -42. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.8 77.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012020 ARTHUR 05/18/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.31 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.23 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.33 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 11.5% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.1% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012020 ARTHUR 05/18/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012020 ARTHUR 05/18/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 40 42 47 44 36 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 38 40 45 42 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 41 38 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT