* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012020 05/17/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 47 51 52 47 36 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 45 47 51 52 47 36 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 47 49 47 42 36 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 14 21 21 29 33 39 44 49 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 3 0 2 1 5 -1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 285 257 245 232 254 256 257 259 279 292 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.9 25.1 24.4 23.8 23.6 22.9 21.9 19.4 19.9 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 105 107 102 97 96 91 85 75 76 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 91 93 89 85 83 79 74 68 68 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.8 -55.8 -56.0 -56.1 -57.0 -57.8 -58.4 -59.3 -59.2 -59.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.8 -0.3 -0.8 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 53 55 60 64 66 64 58 50 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 19 20 24 24 22 17 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -40 -72 -65 -31 2 4 28 11 -33 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 16 24 33 50 53 61 25 50 -24 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 15 15 22 29 22 13 3 -17 -4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 299 241 188 128 127 343 501 598 697 793 887 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.0 32.0 33.0 34.1 35.1 36.5 36.9 36.6 36.1 35.6 35.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.3 76.8 76.3 75.4 74.5 72.0 69.6 67.7 66.3 65.2 64.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 13 12 11 9 7 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -9. -17. -23. -27. -31. -36. -40. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 20. 20. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 2. -5. -13. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 12. 7. -4. -18. -28. -31. -34. -36. -36. -37. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.0 77.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012020 ARTHUR 05/17/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.50 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.21 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 12.9% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.8% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012020 ARTHUR 05/17/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012020 ARTHUR 05/17/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 43 45 47 51 52 47 36 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 45 49 50 45 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 40 44 45 40 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 36 37 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT