* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012020 05/17/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 40 49 54 50 40 31 29 27 25 23 23 24 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 40 49 54 50 40 31 29 27 25 23 23 24 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 37 44 47 44 37 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 3 2 15 15 27 38 46 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 0 2 1 -2 7 3 4 1 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 307 349 358 279 236 242 245 254 255 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.9 25.5 25.3 25.3 24.0 23.6 24.4 17.2 15.4 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 104 109 107 107 98 96 100 69 66 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 91 94 93 93 86 84 85 64 62 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.2 -56.3 -56.4 -56.3 -56.4 -56.9 -57.7 -58.2 -59.2 -59.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 51 53 54 61 68 68 65 62 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 14 13 15 19 20 17 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -39 -52 -30 -41 -74 -21 11 7 12 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -27 -28 -5 22 11 20 64 71 69 76 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 10 8 13 14 18 40 14 6 3 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 272 330 340 296 234 140 248 387 410 431 450 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.8 30.6 31.5 32.3 34.2 36.1 37.5 38.0 38.0 38.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.9 77.5 77.2 76.8 76.4 75.1 73.0 70.7 69.2 68.4 67.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 12 12 9 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 3. -4. -11. -14. -17. -22. -25. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. 4. 5. 1. -6. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 19. 24. 20. 10. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.9 77.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012020 ONE 05/17/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.81 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.31 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.60 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 11.6% 8.1% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 5.6% 3.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.7% 3.9% 2.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012020 ONE 05/17/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012020 ONE 05/17/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 34 35 40 49 54 50 40 31 29 27 25 23 23 24 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 38 47 52 48 38 29 27 25 23 21 21 22 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 33 42 47 43 33 24 22 20 18 16 16 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 35 40 36 26 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT