* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012020 04/25/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 25 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 12 20 24 33 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 0 2 0 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 261 259 256 260 256 248 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.4 25.7 25.1 23.7 23.8 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 127 120 113 99 100 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -54.5 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 52 50 50 43 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -42 -43 -47 -47 -26 -20 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -36 -46 -12 9 14 19 -4 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 0 2 11 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1191 1185 1185 1206 1211 1283 1432 1576 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.7 16.9 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.2 117.8 118.6 119.3 121.1 123.2 125.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 13. 11. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -9. -14. -18. -21. -22. -22. -22. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -26. -35. -42. -47. -50. -52. -53. -53. -52. -54. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 116.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012020 ONE 04/25/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.57 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.23 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.13 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.6% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.6% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012020 ONE 04/25/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##