* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEBASTIEN AL202019 11/23/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 51 48 42 35 48 46 45 42 38 34 29 25 20 N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 51 48 42 35 48 46 45 42 38 34 29 25 20 N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 49 47 42 42 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 32 36 36 40 41 33 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -1 -1 -4 11 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 232 226 226 223 229 240 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 22.8 22.1 21.4 21.4 19.3 18.0 15.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 95 92 89 89 83 80 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 88 85 83 84 79 76 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.7 -55.7 -55.5 -55.5 -56.5 -55.2 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.5 3.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 42 45 42 41 39 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 18 16 13 12 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -27 -34 -49 -37 -17 69 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 44 70 51 35 28 33 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -8 0 -21 -44 -28 -28 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1796 1735 1701 1730 1790 1819 1169 566 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.4 32.7 33.9 35.1 36.2 38.7 41.3 43.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.4 44.3 42.1 39.4 36.8 30.2 23.1 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 22 24 25 27 30 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 24 CX,CY: 17/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -20. -22. -25. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -16. -21. -24. -28. -32. -36. -40. -43. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 13. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -7. -13. -20. -7. -9. -10. -13. -17. -21. -26. -30. -35. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 31.4 46.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/23/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 334.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.04 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/23/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/23/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 52 51 48 42 35 48 46 45 42 38 34 29 25 20 DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 53 52 49 43 36 49 47 46 43 39 35 30 26 21 DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 47 41 34 47 45 44 41 37 33 28 24 19 DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 36 29 42 40 39 36 32 28 23 19 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT