* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEBASTIEN AL202019 11/23/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 49 48 45 38 26 24 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 49 48 45 38 26 24 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 53 51 49 47 44 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 35 33 38 39 35 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 -2 -4 -6 0 -2 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 257 242 233 238 236 247 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.0 23.6 22.9 21.8 20.3 18.6 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 101 99 96 91 86 81 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 93 91 89 85 82 77 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.7 -55.4 -55.4 -56.7 -57.3 -56.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 44 45 51 49 44 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 17 17 16 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -35 -27 -39 -57 -53 15 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 28 46 60 35 17 26 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 -6 0 -3 -12 -4 -37 -160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1953 1875 1814 1788 1790 1950 1527 900 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.6 31.7 32.9 34.0 36.6 39.3 42.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.5 46.6 44.8 42.4 40.1 33.9 26.9 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 19 21 23 25 30 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 23 CX,CY: 19/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -17. -19. -22. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -16. -21. -25. -29. -32. -35. -39. -42. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 15. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -9. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -17. -29. -31. -33. -37. -39. -42. -46. -49. -52. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 29.5 48.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/23/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 318.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.08 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 93.5 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/23/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/23/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 51 49 48 45 38 26 24 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 52 50 49 46 39 27 25 23 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 48 45 38 26 24 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 41 34 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT