* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEBASTIEN AL202019 11/21/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 47 44 38 32 26 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 47 44 38 32 26 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 45 41 33 25 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 34 43 45 44 52 40 32 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 6 6 7 0 -6 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 226 233 241 240 248 248 252 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 26.4 25.8 25.2 24.5 21.8 20.7 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 121 116 111 107 92 88 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 128 114 109 106 102 87 84 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -53.8 -53.3 -53.8 -55.0 -56.6 -57.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 33 30 30 29 27 25 31 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 21 20 17 13 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 56 47 48 44 -6 -50 -55 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 129 100 68 38 34 -13 13 24 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 13 9 2 -13 17 -21 4 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 820 1011 1202 1440 1678 1782 1649 1762 1667 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.6 25.6 26.9 28.1 31.1 34.2 37.4 40.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.1 58.6 57.1 55.1 53.2 48.3 42.6 35.8 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 17 20 21 24 27 30 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 25 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -20. -25. -30. -35. -38. -41. -46. -49. -51. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -10. -17. -22. -24. -25. -26. -26. -26. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -18. -24. -28. -30. -34. -36. -39. -40. -43. -45. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 23.5 60.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/21/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/21/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/21/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 49 47 44 38 32 26 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 48 46 43 37 31 25 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 41 35 29 23 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 37 31 25 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT