* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP202019 11/16/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 32 31 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 32 31 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 35 32 29 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 25 31 37 40 57 60 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 4 0 6 5 -1 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 229 228 231 227 231 218 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.5 24.1 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 138 137 135 129 105 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 4 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 57 58 54 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 14 15 15 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 22 30 32 47 42 34 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 75 55 54 83 39 34 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 14 22 21 29 13 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 746 636 527 410 294 127 52 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.4 18.4 19.5 20.5 22.8 24.9 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.8 111.7 111.6 111.4 111.2 111.4 112.8 114.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 8 5 5 4 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 860 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -12. -23. -36. -47. -55. -59. -62. -64. -67. -74. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -2. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -9. -18. -25. -35. -45. -53. -59. -63. -67. -72. -78. -87. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.4 111.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202019 RAYMOND 11/16/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.57 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.02 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202019 RAYMOND 11/16/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##